Society

The President has a problem. The Obama Tsunami we were told was going to happen with his election has already hit, and all we’re going to get from this point on is the aftershocks. (Not that this is insignificant.) Unfortunately, he came into office with such unrealistic and exaggerated hope by such a large part of the electorate and the world. Instead,

• The “Transformational President” didn’t transform. If anything, the divisiveness is worse.
• The new Age of a Permanent Democrat Majority lasted just two years.   Today there are fewer Democrats in Congress, in State Legislatures, and in governorships than when Obama took office. And, George W. Bush is as popular today as Barack Obama. Not exactly a mandate.
• The “I can cut unemployment in half in my first term” didn’t cut it.
• Obamacare – his only legislative achievement — is as unpopular an idea today as it was the day it passed – if not more so.
• The “most transparent and honest administration in history” has shown to be . . . . well . . . you know. Nuf said.
  

Keeping forward momentum is every president’s second term problem, but it is accentuated for this particular president in everything he does. His dilemma – what he can do about it – is wrapped up in circumstances, politics, attrition and fatigue. Lots of fatigue. And, none of these is in his control. If anything, they’re all moving in the opposite direction.

Obama’s first problem is that he’s now history. He can never run for office again.   No one will have to run for election with him on their ticket; so, they have nothing to fear or gain.  And, no one in D.C. particularly likes him anyway – especially since he has made no effort to like them.  So, they have no incentive to bridge their personal differences with him.  Moreover, everyone knows that it’s Bill Clinton’s party – and will be again as soon as Obama is gone – especially with Hillary back in the picture.  After all, everybody likes Bill Clinton. His ever-present shadow has always been over this administration. Obama will take his place along side Jimmy Carter: never his party, just passin’ thru.

Secondly, someone once said that the true mark of leadership is not how the leader handles a crisis, but how he handles a mess.  Obama has three (maybe four) messes on his hands right now, and not a lot of friends to help him out.  In fact, even his Party in Congress is distancing themselves from him on these messes. His aloofness all of these years from his own Party is coming back to bite him as they sit on the sidelines and watch to see what turns up. His team doesn’t seem to understand the “Hole Theory”: when you’re in a hole . . . stop digging. They just can’t seem to stop shoveling that stuff at us.

Further, the nearly 6-year run of the “Obama TV Reality Show” has run its course.  Remember, most of the nation only sees him on TV: just like they see the Sopranos, Dancing with the Stars, and CSI-NY.  The same TV, and the same comparison.  Those shows all have the ability to change and renew themselves as the years go on, but they still only have a limited lifetime with the audience.  He has no ability to change, so the audience sees the same guy, saying the same things, in the same format.  The first rule of politics is thou shalt not bore.’ Bill Clinton is still interesting . . . like him or not. Obama’s boring now. There is nothing he can do about that. Advertising agencies may be able to re-market new, improved Tide.’ But, there is no way to market new, improved Obama.’

Finally, every second term president faces the same issue after the first year of his second term: the really good people in his administration know that they will need to bail out in the next year if they are going to get a really top job in the private sector because of their access to the White House and administration for the next three years – which is all they are guaranteed. It doesn’t take a genius to know that there is no guarantee of a friendly administration beyond that, and that their usefulness to their new employer (if the Parties change places in the next election) is severely diminished.  Can’t take that chance.

It’s always best to work with first-class people with first-class abilities and ideas. Next best is to work with first-class people with second-class ideas because they have the ability to turn them into first-class ideas. Worst is to work with second-class people with second-class ideas. This is what he will have to work with. This means that the Administration will be left with second tier staffers and political hacks filling top tier posts.  Big titles; mediocre people. It happens every time.  So, he will have to depend on mediocre talent (who in reality will be working overtime to find jobs and protect their turf) to tide him through to the end.

The dilemma for President Obama is what can he do about this?  Before I answer that, let me illustrate with a story. When I went to the State Department as Senator James Buckley’s deputy (he’d just been named as Undersecretary of State by President Reagan), the senior State Department Foreign Service Officer assigned to our office was an outstanding public servant. On our first day there, he pulled me aside and said to me: “Dr. Eastland. The window of opportunity for Senator Buckley here at the State Department is wide open, but it closes a little every day. In two weeks it will be nailed shut. So, if he wants to make changes or a difference, he needs to do it now.” The unfortunate truth is, for the most part he was correct.

President Obama’s window of opportunity has been nailed shut. What he has done to date to set the sides on all the issues has sealed everyone’s position in place. Barring a huge, catastrophic and immediate crisis, no one is going to move from one side to the other.

So, the answer, unfortunately for him is: not much, Because, there really is nothing he can do about it. With the House of Representatives in the hands of Republicans, and likely to stay so; and, the potential of gains by the GOP in the 2014 elections to further erode his Congressional party; it’s going to be impossible for him to be able to do anything more than attend state funerals, give speeches to adoring left-leaning audiences, and vacation with the family. I would recommend a lot of the latter: those years with the children in the home go by all too quickly. And, that’s something he can do something about.

Dr. Larry L. Eastland is a former staff assistant to a President of the United States.